Free Fallin’ ang Piso

This morning, the peso finally gave way.

₱64 to the dollar. A first in our history. Yesterday, ₱63.95. Last Friday, ₱63.615. Parang batong inihulog mula sa bubong. It isn’t slowing down. It’s speeding up.

Tom Petty has an old song, “Free Fallin’.” Masarap pakinggan habang bumababa ka ng Kennon Road. But the peso’s free fall is a different song. Walang libre rito. Every centavo that drops, tayo ang sumasalo.

Three new record lows in a single week. Friday. Monday. Tuesday. And that’s not even the start of it. All year, paulit-ulit na tayong ginigising ng bagong “pinakamababa.”

When it happens that often, it stops being news. It becomes a pattern.

Hindi ako ekonomista. I can’t tell you where the peso will stop. But I have spent my whole career reading numbers. Ratings. Sales. Budgets. And I know what a number with no brakes looks like.

What’s driving it? The experts point to the war in the Middle East. Oil is expensive. And the Philippines gets almost all of its oil — 98 percent — from that region. Every time Trump threatens another strike on Iran, we are the first to shiver. Add a hawkish US Federal Reserve, and the dollar only gets stronger.

All true. Pero hindi lang iyan ang kuwento.

On October 22, the Bangko Sentral raised rates by 50 basis points — bigger than the market expected. The fourth straight hike this year. The goal: steady the peso.

The result? Five days later, it fell anyway.

Hindi ako ang nagsasabi nito. Domini Velasquez, chief economist of Chinabank, said it herself: higher borrowing costs alone are unlikely to rescue the peso. Recovery depends on fundamentals, growth prospects, and the return of investor confidence. John Paolo Rivera of PIDS said much the same: the pressure from outside outweighs whatever support higher rates can give.

Sa wikang kalye: ininom na ang gamot, pero tuloy pa rin ang lagnat.

So who takes the hit?

The jeepney driver. According to Al Jazeera, many drivers now take home only about half of what they earned at the start of the year. That’s why they went on strike in September. Their demand: bring diesel back to ₱55 a liter, the price before the war began. With the dollar at ₱64, sino pa ang naniniwalang mangyayari iyon?

The mother at the palengke. September inflation hit 7.2 percent — the fastest since March 2023. Food inflation jumped to 6.7 percent from 4.6 in a single month. Transport, 14.6 percent. And remember: all of that happened before the dollar reached ₱64.

Here’s the simple math, kababayan. Oil is paid for in dollars. So is the wheat in your pandesal. So are medicines. So is the farmer’s fertilizer. When the peso weakens, it isn’t just the dollar that gets expensive. Nagmamahal ang lahat.

And the OFW? Yes, families get more pesos for every dollar sent home. Pero huwag tayong magpaloko. Whatever is gained on the exchange rate gets eaten by rice, fares, and electricity. Ang kinita sa palitan, natutunaw sa palengke.

So what’s the advice to us?

Jonathan Ravelas of Reyes Tacandong put it plainly: unless we fix food security, transport, and electricity, we need conservation. Save water. Save power. Save food.

He’s right. But listen carefully to what that really means. Food isn’t fixed. Transport isn’t fixed. Power isn’t fixed. Kaya ang taumbayan na naman ang mag-a-adjust.

Ilang beses na ba tayong pinagtipid?

During Ondoy, nagtipid tayo. During Yolanda, nagtipid tayo. During the pandemic, nagtipid tayo. Last March, when the national energy emergency was declared, nagtipid na naman. Filipinos are already experts at tightening the belt. What’s missing isn’t discipline. What’s missing is a plan.

I am not blaming Malacañang for the war in Iran. No president can stop that. But it has been eight months since the fighting broke out and Hormuz closed. Eight months. That is more than enough time to offer something clearer than “magtipid kayo.”

So let me ask directly. Where is the plan for alternative oil supply? Where is the plan for rice and food that isn’t chained to the dollar? Who will face the public and tell us how far this fall goes — and what happens when we hit ₱65?

If there is a plan, show it. Now. Hindi bukas. Hindi sa susunod na SONA.

Because the peso is not just a number on the Bankers Association screen. Iyan ang halaga ng pawis ng tsuper. Ng tindera. Ng guro. Ng nurse sa Riyadh na nagpapadala buwan-buwan.

When the peso falls, the value of our labor falls with it.

Free fallin’, sabi ng kanta. But in economics, there is no such thing as a free fall. Somebody always pays.

At alam na natin kung sino.

Tayo.