When a distant war reaches Filipino homes: Iran-backed Houthis threaten another global trade route

Editor's Note: This commentary was originally published on July 17, 2026. We are republishing it today as renewed developments in the Middle East—including escalating threats to Red Sea shipping—have made its analysis especially relevant.

Whenever we hear news about fighting in the Middle East, many of us probably react the same way.

"That's so far away."

"It won't affect us."

I wish that were true.

But the world has become so connected that a war halfway across the globe can eventually find its way to our dining tables—not through bombs or missiles, but through higher prices, delayed shipments, and a rising cost of living.

That is why Iran's latest warning deserves more attention than it is getting.

After disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has warned that if U.S. military strikes continue, the conflict could spread to another key shipping route—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Most Filipinos have probably never heard of Bab el-Mandeb.

Yet what happens there could affect all of us.

These two waterways are among the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Every day, millions of barrels of oil and countless cargo ships pass through them.

Reuters reports that because traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already been disrupted, producers have shifted more oil shipments to the Red Sea. In effect, one global trade route has become the backup for another.

But what happens if the backup is also disrupted?

Petras Katinas, Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), explains it best:

"The Red Sea Route has become substantially more important because it is no longer simply a normal Europe-Asia transit corridor. It's also one of the main alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz."

That is why this is no longer just a Middle East issue.

It is an Asian issue.

And whether we realize it or not, it is a Philippine issue too.

Iran does not control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but experts say it could rely on the Houthis in Yemen, a group that has already shown it can threaten commercial shipping with missiles and drones.

The worrying part is that they don't even have to close the waterway.

As Katinas explains:

"The Houthis do not need to sink every vessel or maintain a naval blockade. A limited number of successful attacks—or even credible threats—can cause insurers to withdraw coverage, raise war-risk premiums, and force shipowners to sail around the Cape of Good Hope."

That may sound like an issue only for shipping companies.

It's not.

If insurance costs become too high, many ships will simply avoid the Red Sea and sail around southern Africa instead. That adds weeks to a voyage, burns more fuel, and drives up transport costs.

And sooner or later, someone pays.

Usually, it's the consumer.

For Asia, the consequences could be significant. Much of the world's trade moves through these waters. Electronics, machinery, food ingredients, fertilizers, clothing, and countless everyday products depend on these shipping lanes.

The Philippines is particularly exposed.

According to the Department of Energy, our country relies heavily on imported crude oil and petroleum products. That means global disruptions don't stay overseas for long. They eventually show up in our fuel prices, electricity bills, transport fares, and even the cost of basic goods.

Sometimes we think, "It's just oil."

But oil touches almost everything.

Take the humble pandesal.

Before it reaches your breakfast table, flour has to be transported to the bakery. The bakery uses electricity to run its ovens. Delivery trucks use diesel to bring bread to neighborhood stores. Even the plastic bag that holds the bread costs more to produce when energy prices go up.

So a conflict thousands of kilometers away can make your morning pandesal a little more expensive.

The same goes for rice, vegetables, fish, canned goods, and almost everything else we buy.

We've lived through this before.

Whenever fuel prices rise, transportation costs follow. Farmers spend more bringing vegetables to market. Fishermen spend more on fuel. Businesses spend more moving goods around the country.

Eventually, every Filipino family feels the impact.

Katinas offers perhaps the clearest reminder of why this matters:

"Everything can be affected because not only oil or natural gas is shipped through this strait. Other cargoes from Asia—containers, food, fertilisers, coal, and everything else that can be loaded onto a ship and transported to Europe or other parts of the world—might also be affected."

Those words are worth remembering.

In today's world, no country is truly "far away."

A conflict in the Middle East can raise grocery prices in Manila.

A shipping disruption can affect businesses in Cebu.

A geopolitical crisis can quietly become a household concern in Davao.

That is why we cannot afford to dismiss international events as someone else's problem.

The Philippines cannot decide what happens in Tehran, Washington, or Yemen.

But we can prepare by strengthening our energy security, building more resilient supply chains, and reducing our dependence on imported fuel.

Because the world's sea lanes are more than lines on a map.

They are the highways of the global economy.

And when traffic slows on those highways, the effects eventually reach every Filipino home—even through something as ordinary as the pandesal we buy each morning.

References

• Reuters. Explainer: Why Iran's threat to the Red Sea matters for global energy markets. July 2026.
• Reuters. U.S. and Iran exchange new attacks as conflict escalates. July 2026.
• Petras Katinas, Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) – interview and expert commentary.
• Kpler shipping and petroleum flow data (as cited by Reuters).
• Signal Ocean maritime analytics (as cited by Reuters).
• Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) – energy security data.