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FITCH SOLUTIONS: UTANG NG PINAS, MAAARING UMAKYAT NG 60.9% SA EKONOMIYA SA 2023 BAGO PA ANG 'GRADUAL' DROP

Published Jun 23, 2022 01:19 PM by: NET25

FITCH SOLUTIONS: UTANG NG PINAS, MAAARING UMAKYAT NG 60.9% SA EKONOMIYA SA 2023 BAGO PA ANG 'GRADUAL' DROP

MAAARI pang umakyat ang "outstanding debt" ng bansa sa ekonomiya sa susunod na taon bago pa bumaba kaakibat ang inaasahang fiscal consolidation sa ilalim ng incoming government ni Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. Sa pinakabagong komentaryo, sinabi ng Fitch Solutions na nakikita nito na ang debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio ng Pilipinas ay aakyat sa 60.2% sa pagtatapos ng taon at 60.9% sa 2023 bago pa ito unti-unting bababa mula "2024 onwards.” "Such easing of the debt-to-GDP ratio bodes well for the country’s fiscal stability," ayon sa Fitch Solutions sabay sabing "The globally acceptable debt-to-GDP ratio ceiling is 60%." Sinabi pa ng Fitch Solutions na ang bansa ay “still on track for a gradual fiscal consolidation over the coming years as strong revenue growth alongside a recovering economy and positive tax reforms will likely offset expansionary fiscal spending.” Umaasa naman ang economic team ni Marcos Jr., na maibaba ang deficit-to-GDP ratio ng 3% sa pagtatapos ng termino nito sa 2028. Sa pagtatapos ng 2021, ang ratio ay pumalo sa 8.6%. Para sa taong 2023, may pagtataya ang American research company projects na 6.2% - "a tad higher than the 6.1% pegged by the DBCC as it expects government spending to breach target. It cited the Bangon Bayan Muli stimulus package, which is targeted for passage in the incoming 19th Congress and will be part of the 2023 budget." “However, we acknowledge there is still a high degree of uncertainty with regards to the 2023 fiscal projections as Marcos may not stick to the current fiscal projections by the outgoing Duterte administration as he looks to fund his government’s initiative,” ayon sa Fitch Solutions. Samantala, itinutulak naman ni outgoing Department of Finance (DOF) ang karagdagang buwis para tulungan ang Marcos administration na plantsahin ang lumolobong utang ng hindi na gagawa ng panibagong utang. Gayunman, sinabi ni incoming DOF Secretary Benjamin Diokno na ipa-prayoridad niya ang pagpapahusay sa tax collection at tiyakin na ang "economic growth outpaces the national debt stock."

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